Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017

Business Activity

UK
South East
30 50 70 Falling Rising

New orders (54.2)

Feb-15

Commentary

The volume of New Orders (a leading indicator of short-term growth) in the South East increased in February. The increase was robust but the weakest since April 2013.

30 50 70 Falling Rising

Output (53.3)

Aug-17

Commentary

Business Activity or Output growth at private sector firms in the South East increased at the slowest pace in eleven months in August. Business activity or output growth at private sector firms in the South East eased from 54.1 in July to 53.3 in August (50.0 separates growth from contraction). The level of business activity in August suggests that the pace of economic growth in the South East and the UK might have slipped to about 0.3% and 0.35% respectively.

30 50 70 Falling Rising

Employment (51.9)

Feb-16

Commentary

Job creation at private sector firms in the South East continued in February but the pace of job creation was the weakest in two-and-a-half years according to Markit.

Confidence
(South East)

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Business Confidence in the South East and the UK -10-505 South East: -10South EastUK: -8UK

-10

Business confidence

% net balance - 2017 Q3

Commentary

Business Confidence in the South East and the UK turned negative at the beginning of the third quarter. The UK index decreased from +6.7 in Q2 2017 to -8 in Q3 2017. Similarly the South Index also dropped from +4 in Q2 2017 to -10 in Q3 2017. The confidence index declined across most sectors especially in retail & wholesale and IT & communications, both at its lowest since 2009. Only the Energy, Water & Mining sector remains positive.

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Business Investment in the UK 0 UK: 0UK

0.0%

Business investment

2017 Q2

Commentary

Subdued business sentiment is reflected in the latest data on business investment. Provisional estimates from ONS indicate that business investment remained broadly unchanged in the second quarter after increasing by 0.6% in the first quarter. Likewise business investment was estimated to have remained broadly unchanged on the same quarter a year ago.

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Consumer Confidence in the UK -10-505 UK: -10UK

-10

Consumer confidence

% net balance - August 2017

Commentary

Consumer confidence perked up somewhat in August but remained heavily subdued. The UK index, a measure of a range of consumer attitudes, including forward looking expectations of the general economic situation, households' financial position, and views on making major purchases improved two points to -10 in August. August saw a slight recovery in consumer confidence with all five measures used to calculate the index registering higher values in August compared to July.

Prices/Costs
(Hampshire CC/South East)

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing House Price Inflation in Hampshire and the UK 01234567 Hampshire: 6.7HampshireUK: 5.1UK

6.7%

House price inflation

Jul-17

Commentary

Monthly growth in house prices in Hampshire (0.9%) was robust in July with prices on average increasing by about £2,900. Annual growth (6.7%) was faster than reported last month and more than twice as fast as in London or Surrey. Monthly growth in house prices in the UK was strong in July (1.1%) but slower than in the previous month and annual growth (5.1%) remained broadly unchanged from June to July.

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Input Price Inflation in the South East and the UK 0102030405060 South East: 52.3South EastUK: 52.1UK

52.3

Input prices (costs)

Feb-16

Commentary

Input (factory) price inflation in the South East and the UK increased in February but the rates remain weak in the context of historic survey data. The increases were driven by services.

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing CPIH Inflation in the UK 00.511.522.53 UK: 2.9UK

2.9%

CPI inflation

Aug-17

Commentary

Inflation in the UK increased to 2.9% in August (from 2.6% in July) with the core inflation (inflation stripped out of volatile components) reaching a six-year high of 2.7%. The largest upward contribution to inflation last month came from clothing and motor fuels prices. The largest downward contribution was found in air fares which saw strong growth in August but the pace was slower than a year ago.

Labour Market
(Hampshire CC)

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Unemployed Claimant count in Hampshire and the UK 00.511.52 Hampshire: 0.8HampshireUK: 1.9UK

6,730

Unemployment

Claimant count JSA+UC - August 2017

Commentary

The number of unemployed claimants (claimant count JSA + universal credit) in the Hampshire County Council Area increased by 155 additional claimants to 6,730 but the unemployment rate not adjusted for seasonal factors remained unchanged at 0.8% in August

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Young Unemployed Claimant count in Hampshire and the UK 00.511.522.53 Hampshire: 1.1HampshireUK: 2.3UK

1,395

Youth unemployment

Youth Claimant count JSA+UC - August 2017

Commentary

The number of young unemployed claimants (JSA+UC) in the Hampshire County Council Area increased by 90 additional claimants to 1,395 and the rate edged higher to 1.1% in August. Moreover on the old measure (the claimant count JSA) the youth unemployment rate in Hampshire remained unchanged to 0.3% in August.

Hampshire business dashboard - September 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing People in Employment in Hampshire and the UK 0102030405060708090 Hampshire: 80.5HampshireUK: 74UK

661,500

Employment

April 2016 - March 2017

Commentary

In the year to March 2017 compared to the previous year (year to March 2016) the number of people in employment in the Hampshire County Council area increased by about 8,200 and the rate increased by about 0.8 percentage points to 80.5%. Employment growth was driven by a rise in the number employees in employment, however faster growth was held back by a decrease in self-employment. The employment rate in the year to March 2017 was higher than in the year to December 2016 (80%) and the highest rate on record for the year to March.

Reading the dashboard data

Bar chart colours
  • Red
    Worse score or absolute number than in the previous month/survey
  • Amber
    Similar score / number
  • Green
    Better score or absolute number than in the previous survey
Border colour

Shows ‘overall’ conditions:

  • Red conditions are currently difficult
  • Amber unemployment only
    (no change in the unemployment rate)
  • Green conditions have improved

Thresholds for change to green (red)

Business confidence, consumer confidence, investment: conditions have been improving (deteriorating) over the past three months

Unemployment rate: lower (higher) rate than three months ago.

Input prices: low (high) prices relative to long-trend average

CPI inflation: inflation below (above) Bank of England target

House prices:

  • Green-annual rate inside the long run 95% confidence interval
  • Amber –rate within the 95%-99% interval
  • Red –rate at either above 99% or below 95%
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) scores
  • Less than 50 – falling activity compared to previous month
  • 50 – no change on previous month
  • More than 50 – rising activity compared to previous month

Used for: Business Activity, New orders, Employment, Input Prices

Net balance

Determined by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting decreases in a factor from the percentage of companies reporting increases.

  • Less than 0 – more firms reporting decreases than increases
  • 0 – similar numbers of firms reporting decreases and increases
  • More than 0 – more firms reporting increases than decreases
  • % - expected to make higher capital investment / reported higher wages / costs
Leading Indicators
  • consumer confidence
  • business confidence
  • new capital investment
  • new orders
  • input prices
Sources
  • Business Confidence
    Institute of Chartered Account. (ICAEW)
  • New capital investment,
    Department for Business Innovation & Skills (BIS)
  • House prices
    Land Registry
  • Consumer Confidence
    GfK NOP
  • Employment, Unemployment, Inflation
    ONS
  • Business activity, orders, employment, input prices
    Markit / Lloyds PMI
Notes

Unemployment (rate, 16-64), youth unemployment (16-24), are not adjusted for seasonal factors.

PMI (output/business activity, new orders, employment) – private sector only (1).

Change in employment – annual change, updated quarterly.

For further information see  MBD summary report and monthly Economy & Business Snapshot and Labour Market  Updates for Hampshire.