Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017

Business Activity

UK
South East
30 50 70 Falling Rising

New orders (54.2)

Feb-15

Commentary

The volume of New Orders (a leading indicator of short-term growth) in the South East increased in February. The increase was robust but the weakest since April 2013.

30 50 70 Falling Rising

Output (54.4)

Sep-17

Commentary

Business Activity or Output growth at private sector firms in the South East increased at a faster pace in September than in the previous month. Business activity or output growth at private sector firms in the South East rose to 54.4 in September, from 53.3 in August (50.0 separates growth from contraction). If sustained over the quarter this level of business activity in the private sector points to 0.4% growth in output (GVA) at the private sector firms in the South East and the UK (UK ~ 0.37%).

30 50 70 Falling Rising

Employment (51.9)

Feb-16

Commentary

Job creation at private sector firms in the South East continued in February but the pace of job creation was the weakest in two-and-a-half years according to Markit.

Confidence
(South East)

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Business Confidence in the South East and the UK -10-505 South East: -10South EastUK: -8UK

-10

Business confidence

% net balance - 2017 Q3

Commentary

Business Confidence in the South East and the UK turned negative at the beginning of the third quarter. The UK index decreased from +6.7 in Q2 2017 to -8 in Q3 2017. Similarly the South Index also dropped from +4 in Q2 2017 to -10 in Q3 2017. The confidence index declined across most sectors especially in retail & wholesale and IT & communications, both at its lowest since 2009. Only the Energy, Water & Mining sector remains positive.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Business Investment in the UK 00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1 UK: 0.5UK

0.5%

Business investment

2017 Q2

Commentary

The revised estimate from ONS suggests that business investment increased by 0.5% in the second quarter, from no growth in the preliminary estimate. Quarterly growth in business investment was broadly similar to the increase in the first quarter (0.6%). Business investment in the second quarter of this year was estimated to have increase by 2.5% on the same quarter a year ago but growth remains well below the long-run trend.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Consumer Confidence in the UK -1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-901 UK: -9UK

-9

Consumer confidence

% net balance - September 2017

Commentary

Consumer confidence edged higher in September, following a small increase in the previous month. The UK index, a measure of a range of consumer attitudes, including forward looking expectations of the general economic situation, households’ financial position, and views of making major purchases increased from -10 in August to -9 in September. The two indices used to measure personal financial situation decreased, but the major purchase index and both indices used to measure general economic situation (past 12 months and expectation over the next 12 months) increased in September.

Prices/Costs
(Hampshire CC/South East)

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing House Price Inflation in Hampshire and the UK 01234567 Hampshire: 6.7HampshireUK: 5UK

6.7%

House price inflation

Aug-17

Commentary

Monthly growth in house prices in Hampshire on average increased by around 1.3% (or about £4,000) in August, considerably faster than in the previous month (0.8%). Annual growth in August (6.7%) was faster than the previous month and more than twice as fast as in London or Surrey for a second month in a row. Monthly growth in house prices in the UK eased in August to 0.5% and annual growth was faster in August (5%) compared with the previous month.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Input Price Inflation in the South East and the UK 0102030405060 South East: 52.3South EastUK: 52.1UK

52.3

Input prices (costs)

Feb-16

Commentary

Input (factory) price inflation in the South East and the UK increased in February but the rates remain weak in the context of historic survey data. The increases were driven by services.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing CPIH Inflation in the UK 00.511.522.53 UK: 3UK

3.0%

CPI inflation

Sep-17

Commentary

Inflation in the UK increased one percentage point to 3% in September, a five and a half-year high. The strongest upward contribution came from transport prices (especially air fares) and food and beverages. Transport prices usually decrease sharply in September, but this time fell at a slower pace than a year ago. Sterling's weakness continued to drive the cost of imports and domestic prices of goods and services which are heavily dependent on imports. The rise in price pressures has lead to the first increase in interest rates in a decade in early November.

Labour Market
(Hampshire CC)

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Unemployed Claimant count in Hampshire and the UK 00.511.52 Hampshire: 0.8HampshireUK: 1.9UK

6,875

Unemployment

Claimant count JSA+UC - September 2017

Commentary

The number of unemployed claimants (claimant count JSA + universal credit) in the Hampshire County Council Area increased by 185 additional claimants to 6,875 but the unemployment rate not adjusted for seasonal factors remained unchanged at 0.8% in September.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing Young Unemployed Claimant count in Hampshire and the UK 00.511.522.53 Hampshire: 1.1HampshireUK: 2.3UK

1,450

Youth unemployment

Youth Claimant count JSA+UC - September 2017

Commentary

The number of young unemployed claimants (JSA+UC) in the Hampshire County Council Area increased by 55 additional claimants to 1,450 and the rate remained unchanged at 1.1% in September. Moreover on the old measure (the claimant count JSA) the youth unemployment rate in Hampshire remained unchanged to 0.3% in September.

Hampshire business dashboard - October 2017 | Facts and figures | Hampshire County Council A bar chart showing People in Employment in Hampshire and the UK 0102030405060708090 Hampshire: 80.7HampshireUK: 74.2UK

662,900

Employment

May 2016 - June 2017

Commentary

In the year to June 2017 compared to the previous year (year to June 2016) the number of people in employment in the Hampshire County Council area increased by about 10,300 to 662,900 and the rate increased by about 1.2 percentage points to 80.7%. The strong rise in total employment was driven by full-time employees in employment (firms recruiting staff). The employment rate in Hampshire was slightly higher than in the year to March 2017 (80.5%) and second highest rate on record for the year to June. Hampshire has the second highest employment rate in the South East.

Reading the dashboard data

Bar chart colours
  • Red
    Worse score or absolute number than in the previous month/survey
  • Amber
    Similar score / number
  • Green
    Better score or absolute number than in the previous survey
Border colour

Shows ‘overall’ conditions:

  • Red conditions are currently difficult
  • Amber unemployment only
    (no change in the unemployment rate)
  • Green conditions have improved

Thresholds for change to green (red)

Business confidence, consumer confidence, investment: conditions have been improving (deteriorating) over the past three months

Unemployment rate: lower (higher) rate than three months ago.

Input prices: low (high) prices relative to long-trend average

CPI inflation: inflation below (above) Bank of England target

House prices:

  • Green-annual rate inside the long run 95% confidence interval
  • Amber –rate within the 95%-99% interval
  • Red –rate at either above 99% or below 95%
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) scores
  • Less than 50 – falling activity compared to previous month
  • 50 – no change on previous month
  • More than 50 – rising activity compared to previous month

Used for: Business Activity, New orders, Employment, Input Prices

Net balance

Determined by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting decreases in a factor from the percentage of companies reporting increases.

  • Less than 0 – more firms reporting decreases than increases
  • 0 – similar numbers of firms reporting decreases and increases
  • More than 0 – more firms reporting increases than decreases
  • % - expected to make higher capital investment / reported higher wages / costs
Leading Indicators
  • consumer confidence
  • business confidence
  • new capital investment
  • new orders
  • input prices
Sources
  • Business Confidence
    Institute of Chartered Account. (ICAEW)
  • New capital investment,
    Department for Business Innovation & Skills (BIS)
  • House prices
    Land Registry
  • Consumer Confidence
    GfK NOP
  • Employment, Unemployment, Inflation
    ONS
  • Business activity, orders, employment, input prices
    Markit / Lloyds PMI
Notes

Unemployment (rate, 16-64), youth unemployment (16-24), are not adjusted for seasonal factors.

PMI (output/business activity, new orders, employment) – private sector only (1).

Change in employment – annual change, updated quarterly.

For further information see  MBD summary report and monthly Economy & Business Snapshot and Labour Market  Updates for Hampshire.