Hampshire Facts and Figures

Hampshire County Council's Long Term Projections Explained

Hampshire County Council have produced a new set of Long Term Population Projections. These make use of the housing figures in the South East Plan which were published in May 2009.  They therefore replace those projections which used the Government’s proposed changes to the dwelling figures put forward in the draft South East Plan in Summer 2008.

The projections are produced using the Chelmer model, developed by the Population and Housing Research Group at Anglia Ruskin University.

The main features of the projections are as follows:-

  • The are projected forward from the 2001 Census;

  • The 2001 base populations, from which the projected forward estimates commence, are the 2001 Census populations, adjusted in Southampton and Portsmouth for the additional population arising from estimated under enumeration, and for other smaller changes which were included in the revised 2001 mid year estimates.  Students are therefore counted at their term time address. Counts of armed forces and their dependents have been obtained from special tabulations acquired from the 2001 Census .

  • The main assumption underlying the projections is that the number of dwellings built between 2006 and 2026 in each district will be consistent with the overall numbers put forward in the South East Plan.  The period 2001-2008 is based on actual dwelling completions.  

  • All other data incorporated into the projections includes:

  • Fertility and Mortality rates are the GAD* 2006 based projected rates for England & Wales, adjusted by district level correction factors to reflect local variations from the national average.

  • In and out Migration propensities have been derived from the 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics.

  • Household Representative rates are the CLG** 2003 based.

  • Vacancy and sharing rates are derived from the 2001 Census and assumed constant.  The number of second homes is also assumed constant.

  • The geographical base for the forecasts are districts.

Please note the figures might not sum due to rounding.

* Government Actuary's Department

**Communities and Local Government