Hampshire Facts and Figures

Methodology for the 2010 based Small Area Population and Dwellings Forecasts

Hampshire County Council have produced a new set of Small Area Population Forecasts extending to 2017. These replace the 2009-based forecasts published in Spring 2010.

The main features of the 2010-based forecasts are as follows:-

  • The forecasts commence from April 2010 population estimates rolled forward from the 2001 Census;

  • The 2001 base populations, from which the rolled forward estimates commence, are the 2001 Census populations, adjusted in Southampton and Portsmouth for the additional population arising from estimated under enumeration, and for other smaller changes which were included in the revised 2001 mid year estimates. Students are therefore counted at their term time address. Counts of armed forces and their dependents have been obtained from special tabulations acquired from the 2001 Census.

  • The 2010 population estimates are rolled forward from 2001, incorporating known births and deaths and known dwelling completions. The unknown elements are the in and out flows of migrants. The model deals with these as three separate flows - in migrants to the new dwellings completions, and in and out migrants from the existing stock of dwellings. The net effect of these forecast flows is controlled by an assumption that at district level, average household size declined between 2001 and 2010 at the same average annual rate as in the previous decade. Students are assumed constant, though updates to those in halls of residence have been made this year, and the 2001 counts of armed forces and their dependents are adjusted pro rata with the annual DASA* counts of stationed armed forces.

  • The forecasts are based on future dwellings supply. The dwelling supply information for the period 2010 to 2017 includes all large and small sites with planning permission, or allocated in local plans as at April 1st 2010. The assumptions on phasing are agreed with the district councils and unitary authorities.

  • Additional dwelling information is obtained from district’s Strategic Housing and Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA).

  • Users should be aware that in the current economic climate forecasting future dwelling supply has been particularly difficult. The figures are the best projections available as at 1/4/2010 on a site by site basis taking account of the current market conditions.

  • Fertility and Mortality rates are the ONS** 2008 based projected rates for England & Wales, adjusted by appropriate ward level correction factors to reflect local variations from the national average.

  • In and out Migration propensities have been derived from the 2001 Census Special Migration Statistics.

  • Household Representative rates are the CLG*** 2006 based, with 2008 based rates used for Portsmouth and Southampton.

  • Vacancy and sharing rates are derived from the 2001 Census and assumed constant. The number of second homes is also assumed constant.

  • The geographical base for the forecasts is the 2001 Census Output Areas.

  • Please note the figures might not sum due to rounding.

  • For the 2010 based forecasts work with Southampton City Council led to a second set of figures being produced based on some slightly different assumptions to those of the rest of Hampshire. In particular the alternative forecasts use household size estimates based on work carried out by consultants for the council rather than those based on the CLG household projections. The migration assumptions have also been adjusted in light of work carried out assessing changes in the ethnic structure of school children across the authority using the PLASC**** data source.

* Defence Analytical Services Agency

** Office for National Statistics

***Communities and Local Government

**** The Pupil Level Annual School Census